Bogumil Pacak-Gamalski

Russian invasion in Ukraine pretends not to be a war but ‘a military operation’ against a non-existing state defended by non-existing nation. That’s Vladimir Putin vision of the world and his vocabulary. In some way he might be not lying.  In his mind it might be a true statement. Just as Hitler truly believed in the “One Thousand Year Reich” and predestine superiority of German ‘Aryan race’.

It doesn’t change at all the situation of Ukraine and Ukrainians, who live in normal, material dimension, not mental. One could say that the Russians are using not too clear definition of hybrid war and the Ukrainians are just at regular defensive war.

The United States and NATO are just bystanders. President Bidden is adamant that there could not be even a possibility of Western (by that we still mean NATO countries – of which USA is the dominant factor and decision maker) military, direct involvement in any combat or possibly characterized as combative action. To preserve larger peace in Europe, nuclear war and all other calamities. At the same time we are actively supplying Ukrainians with all sorts of arms and lethal war supplies to supplement their own, not too powerful armament. That is also a lie (or, just as in Putin’s case – a state of mind).

The USA scenario (executed by NATO) is a war. It is not so called  hybrid war (Russia’s war in Ukraine) but a war be proxy. Another war theory, used by Russia and USA (or, in general – the West) for decades since 1945. That proxy this time being Ukraine. No, the West did not provoke Putin’s invasion by any means. Ukraine sympathies toward the West, especially since annexation of Crimea by Russia, are Ukraine choice. It is internationally recognized sovereign state and has a right to make its political choices. But to say that we (the West) are not party or not involved in the current war is nonsense.  

In that sense Ukrainian President Zelensky is absolutely right, when he calls out USA and NATO bluff. Either admit it that you will not get involved in the war, give as much humanitarian aid, fortify your own European borders and say to your own nations, that there is nothing you can do – or the blood of Ukrainians will truly be on your hands, too. Prolonging that heroic act of Ukrainian defensive war by supplying them with enough arms to continue resistance and not enough to have the slightest chance of winning – is a macabre. It is using them, Ukrainians, as your proxy to test the abilities and strength of Russian bear.

The clearest sign of it came just few hours ago in the saga of pressuring Poland to give the Ukrainians it’s Russian-build but recently modified MiG fighter jets. Since the meagre Ukrainian Air Force is using the same jets – the transfer could be the best match (for Ukrainian pilots).

The idea started right after the invasion begun, when European Union Security Chief suggested that Poland offered to do it. That claim was swiftly and categorically rejected by Poland. Then, in face of growing losses of Ukrainians in southern (along the Azov and Black Sea coast) regions and categorical refusal of closing Ukrainian airspace by NATO – Zelensky strongly appealed for transfer of some jets to its Air Force, not just small arm held surface to air missiles.  Let’s remember that Ukraine consists of steppes: relatively flat land, not a high mountains as in Afghanistan and small arms , no matter how powerful, are no match in open space against Russian air force, batteries and heavy armed mobile missiles. That appeal from Zelensky prompted the USA to suggest that Poland should (and has the means to do it) transfer it’s  MiG jets to Ukraine.  Again, Poland, as late as last Sunday, rejected the idea saying it will not risk using Polish airfields to fly the jests over Ukrainian airspace to Ukraine. It does make sense in  light of NATO hard stance that no NATO soldier will put his/her boots in Ukraine to even appear as being involved in the conflict. Poland does not have the military might as USA – that is beyond discussion. It has been sold out by it’s allies to Stalin already once in 1945. It doesn’t want the risk of being told that it was Polish government, who flew the planes over Ukrainian airspace and therefore it can’t demand the NATO to defend its borders as the planes did not fly on NATO order. Farfetched? Perhaps. But logical in many ways. Then, suddenly today, Polish government came out with a new plan. Now it says it will fly the planes to USA base in Germany, give them to USA army and they can fly them to Ukraine from their base. Under logical assumption that USA will very soon let Poles to buy some used USA older jets (Poland can’t afford in this times to lose a big chunk of it’ own planes and planes these days – see Canada’s many long years waiting for planes from USA, that were ordered and paid for as many years ago – do not come easily. The USA scrambled to come with an answer. Suddenly the Administration was explaining that actually planes are not that important for Ukrainians, that they would not change much in the war. There is an old saying in Poland (from a popular youth book of older times): when Kali steals something from a neighbour – that is a good deed; when a neighbour steals from Kali – it is a very bad deed. That saying, in my opinion, perfectly describes  president Biden’s confused Administration.

My view of the conflict, our ‘non-involved involvement’ in it, is evolving as the time passes by. As I see city by city, town by town being reduced to ruins, hospitals and schools bombed, nuclear plants exposed to bombs, millions of people on the dangerous exodus to other countries – it all brings to my memory pictures of 2 world war and the cities in Europe reduced to rubble: Warsaw, Hamburg, Wroclaw/Breslau, nations uprooted and moved somewhere else (that includes Polish population of Lviv/Lvov and Western Ukraine, which was part of Polish state for hundreds of years) by new Russian overlords.

We do have a moral but also existential right to get involved deeper, stronger in Ukraine’s fate. It is still time. And I don’t believe that Putin would risk a full-fledged war with the united West. If Ukraine fell six days ago – it might have been too late to do anything and we would have bought ourselves few more years of false peace. But it didn’t. And now we can’t afford to let Her fall. But also now, by the very strong sanctions, we have weakened him very much. He can’t afford even a short full-blown war with the West. He will be forced to negotiate. And we should. So the Ukrainians. Perhaps a solution is possible. I think it is. Might not be fully satisfactory to everyone – but that is sometime (most of the time) the only workable solution. To do that we might stop being at war by proxy. We might need to send more than ten or twenty Polish older jets to Ukraine (although that would be the right beginning). We actually might put some boots on Ukrainian soil. Not on Russian, on Ukrainian. Not with the desire to defeat Russia in some grand battles. To force Russia to a negotiating table. A conference of sort. Providing the main and deciding roles will belong to Russia and Ukraine. We just have to stop the war by proxy. I can’t see Ukraine being able to defeat Russia militarily on it’s own.  Ukraine dos not need a heroic President, who dies defending its crumbling capital. Ukraine needs its heroic President Zelensky to lead the country in painful and long rebuilding. Needs its children to return to their schools from other countries, its wives to come back to their living husbands.

Yes, we don’t have a war in Europe beyond Ukraine. But no, we don’t have peace, either. Is there a risk? Yes, and it want be smaller ten or five years from now if we do, as we do today. Which is too little and too late.

In the history of wars, of empires – even the most powerful armies lost  to smaller ones by choosing to wait, to observe, to react instead of act.